Did ya miss it? Huh?

To truly grasp why I posit that we’ve blown through 4th Generation Warfare, and have already entered 5th Generation Warfare, one must understand the periods that comprise 3rd and 4th Generation Warfare. It is key that we understand what comprises a transition, or in fact the watersheds William S. Lind describes in “The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation”. Mr. Lind’s report, filed with the US Marine Corps in the Marine Corps Gazette some 17 years ago, has been a primary resource for those that dabble in “generational warfare” speeches, theories, papers, and books. In one simple statement Mr. Lind provides the definition for these generations:

“While military development is generally a continuous evolutionary process, the modern era has witnessed three watersheds in which change has been dialectically qualitative. Consequently, modern military development comprises three distinct generations.”

Now, when Mr. Lind wrote this initial report for the US Marine Corps, back in October of 1989, warfare was very different from today. In fact, some may even say that they have not seen a change in the way the US Military fights today than say, WWII or even in The Korean War. But on closer inspection, I say that there has already been one more watershed added - the 4th Generation is clearly marked and we are now into the 5th Generation. Again, as stated above by Mr. Lind, the catalysts for change are key when transitioning from one generation to the next.

Looking at a timeline of the first three generations, you can see that the shortest transitions have taken place around WWI (1914 - 1919) and WWII (1939 - 1945), as pictured here:

It is very important to note that Mr. Lind has stated that the basic concepts of 3rd Generation Warfare tactics were in place by the end of 1918. What is written as the primary catalyst defining the entrance into 3rd Generation is a new technology and the tactics that are a direct result of that new technology: tanks and the blitzkrieg. Therefore the 3rd Generation owes its very existence to the tank and blitzkrieg. You can learn all about these watersheds in the first page and a half of Mr. Lind’s paper. The last three and a half pages carefully postulate what could comprise the 4th Generation’s watershed, as if it is something that is in the future - or near future. I posit that it is actually in our past, and that we’ve blown through the 4th Generation and have already entered the 5th Generation based upon the above guidelines for what makes a generational shift possible, a huge catalyst.

There were huge changes after the Korean War and into and through Vietnam that, to me, are incontrovertible evidence that the 4th Generation happened and we find ourselves smack dab in the middle of the 5th Generation. I’ll give you the two that come quickly to mind for me, and that is mainly ’cause I’m ex-USAF and these two birds show a clear shift in technology and tactics.

The first example can trace it’s birth to the need for close air support and directed strikes in rough terrain: the AC-130 Spectre (the younger sister of Spooky, the AC-47). The AC-47 Spooky, a rework of the C-47 Skytrain, had guns that could destroy targets from the air, but she lacked the range, and effectiveness, that the field commanders required. Later, in 1968, the US Air Force put the first AC-130 Spectre into action - and she performed beyond expectation! The growing relationship between ground troops and the AC-130 became paramount to the success of ground operations. The AC-130 afforded small squads the opportunity to call in close support in terrain that in the past would have been impossible. The AC-130 flew in, taking direction from the squad leader or officer on the ground, with pinpoint accuracy. By eliminating the enemy without directly engaging them reduced casualties. Plus, with the advent of even newer and more accurate weapons’ delivery systems, the AC-130 became the best friend for anyone pinned down during a firefight.

The second example is the grandfather to a maneuver that has changed the way of the air campaign: the F-105 Wild Weasel (older brother to the F-4 Wild Weasel, well all wild weasels!). The bane of every attacking wave of US Navy and US Air Force fighter/bomber pilot is the Russian made SA-2 rocket. Sorties into North Vietnam were tough with just having to put up with AAA fire, now pilots had to deal with this ground missile guided by ground based, mobile, radar trucks. The threat needed to be eliminated, and new technology and tactics developed for the F-105 allowed pilots to fly ahead of and behind those fighter/bomber sorties, eliminating the radar systems, either by scaring them into going dark or blowing them up on very dangerous, “down the beam” attacks. Once the AGM-45 missile was developed for the F-105 and RF-4, SA-2 sites no longer had a chance.

These two examples, in my estimation, are evidence that huge catalysts in technology and tactics provide the 4th’s watershed, the beginning and the end. The reason that I posit that there is an end to the 4th and an entrance into the 5th is, well, read on.

Several pundits and authors have presented their analysis that states, and I’ll generalize here, that there are multiple elements considered when categorizing these generational warfare bands or eras (1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th). Most often spoken of today is technology and tactics that make up the 4th Generation. This is due, primarily, to the fact that we all are using a body of work that is 17 years old and that our thinking has stopped there, in 1989. In a few places that I have gone to, and these are not the only sites, Small Wars Council, ZenPundit, and Dreaming 5GW, I have found excellent cross references from which to conclude we can see the 4th Generation’s watershed, and that the 5th’s is very current, and very real. But until now, I have not seen what I believe is a real world example of this 5th Generation’s existence. But by enumerating several, and not all, of the primary elements I see as the delivery mechanisms, varying devices or munitions, the locales or targets, and the tactics or methods employed in 5th Generation Warfare taking place today, I think that you will begin to see just what I mean.

I believe that a 5GW warrior or strategist utilizes several, and sometimes all, of these elements, interchanging and combining them in a very hyper-frenetic fashion to create weapons and tactics in a dynamic, and extremely lethal, attack. This new process is the catalyst, or the dialectically qualitative change, that Mr. Lind tells us defines each watershed - our 5th Generation Warfare watershed. Just take this list in for a moment:

Information Sources

• Internet / Communications / Face-to-Face
• Battle Plans / Objectives
• SitReps / JTIDS / Sensors
• Media
• Folklore
• Factual History

Influences

• Religion / Belief System / Morality / Ethics
• Government / Rule / Politics
• Academia / Instruction / Literacy
• Economics / Resources
• Media
• Folklore
• Factual History

Geographical / Physical

• Battlefield / Theater
• Village / Town / City / Province|County / State / Country / Continent

Technological / Virtual

• Websites / Blogs / Forums / Feeds
• E-mail / Listservs
• Land line
• Radio
• TV
• Video

Current Examples

• Guerrilla / Militia / Gangs / Dictators
• Propaganda / Political Correctness / Appeasement
• Terrorism / Hijacking / Hostages
• Hysteria / Riots / Mass Killings
• Oppression / Rape / Looting & Robbery

In actuality, I believe that these are the tools or weapons with which a 5GW campaign is being executed today. I am sure, as you review these, you might begin to build your own combinations and see that there are some very clear, and cataclysmic, examples taking place today. And these combo-catalysts are reshaping and redefining the battlefield at an alarming rate, while at the same time making the battlefield more mobile and at the same time more difficult to conquer.

This new generation, the 5th Generation Warfare and Warrior, is no friggin’ goof with an SA-2, people. It is real, and it has been here already, and it is taking root in places you would never expect or imagine. I am not a conspiracy theorist or whack-nut psycho trying to get extra hits to my blog or boost ad revenue. I am a concerned, ex-USAF, US Citizen that sees a new wave that our US Military is not prepared to fight. And we need a wake-up call that is not rooted in old, stodgy, and myopic views of warfare. The new generation, the 5th GWW (generation warfare warrior), is betting you’ll keep your noses in those books, old training manuals, and stay in clearly formed columns and squads acting in concert to central commands.

They’re betting on it.

I’ll provide the entrance criteria for the 5th Generation Warfare watershed in my next post. Here’s a hint: sniff around 2003, using 1993 as a point of reference for the initial signs of change. And drop your freak-theories about wars for oil and nukes - it is simpler and more dangerous.

Have FUN!

TAGS: Fix4RSO, Milblog, Military, 5GW, Warfare, Technology, GWOT

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 19th, 2006 at 3:22 and is filed under 5GW, Coriolis, Fix4RSO, GWOT, Warfare, WayPoint. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.